Q3 2025 Market Overview

• The US stock market experienced continued strong performance with the S&P500 up 7.8% in Q3 2025with strong economic growth. As of 9/30/25, the SP500 and Nasdaq composite were up 13.7% and 17.9% respectively. Over the same period, consensus SP500corporate earnings estimates for FY25 were revised up from $264/share to$280/share supporting higher share prices.  
• Over the second quarter, the US10Y government bond yield moved slightly lower to 4.15% with US 30Y fixed mortgage rate decreasing slightly to 6.4%.   The US Federal Reserve cut the Fed Funds rate to 4.25% amid expectations of a weaker labor market. The Fed continues to communicate concern about inflation expectations and inflation, which remain persistently high with the CPI and PCE running at 3.0%and 2.9% YoY, respectively, vs the 2% Fed Target. Employment remains healthy but is trending weaker with the US unemployment rate now at 4.3%. Five-year “A” rated US investment grade corporate bonds currently yield 4.2% while high yield “BB” bonds yield 5.4%.  Overall, credit spreads have tightened amid low default risk, but valuations appear optimistic and may have little room to tighten further. 
• US Economic growth continues to be healthy with analyst estimates of at least 3% in the third quarter supported by strong consumer spending and investment gains offsetting the drag of tariff-related uncertainty.  Back-to-school shopping helped as did discretionary spending from higher-income households. Spending on ArtificialIntelligence and data center construction is very robust with strong announcements during the quarter.  Trade frictions and uncertainty around import/exports remain a cloud hanging over the commercial landscape.  
• Following a 10% drop in the US Dollar index (DXY) in the first half of the year, the USD rallied 2% in the third quarter.  We feel it is unlikely to rally much more against a backdrop of lower US policy rates moving lower into the fall. Gold was up 16%over the quarter to nearly $4000/oz, bringing YTD up 47%. Much of the strength can be attributed to the dollar debasement trade with the US government shutdown stemming from the inability of congress to pass a spending bill. Bitcoin finished the quarter up 6% at $114,640 against US dollar weakness
• We continue to remain optimistic about stock and bond markets as economic and earnings growth remain strong and business-friendly regulation and tax policy help offset the drag of higher import tariffs.  We expect further Fed rate cuts in the second half of2025, which may also be supportive.  Inflation continues to run above the Fed's 2% target and the US government shut down poses risk to the markets and the US dollar.  Stock market valuations have risen substantially, and we continue to rebalance to client target asset allocations. Ending the government shutdown, lower inflation data and/or continued success on bilateral trade talks and tariff resolutions could represent additional positive catalysts for the equity market. 

Written by THRYVE Wealth Management, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor

About THRYVE 

At THRYVE, we believe the human side of wealth management isn't a feature: it's the foundation. Every financial decision a client faces is ultimately a life decision, and the relationship between an advisor and a client is one of the most consequential professional bonds a person can have. We take that seriously.

THRYVE is an independent, fiduciary-based Registered Investment Adviser built on a simple and uncompromising standard: no products, no commissions, no conflicts. Our loyalty is to our clients, and only our clients. Backed by a team with over 100 years of combined wealth management experience, we deliver comprehensive financial planning, forward-looking investment strategies, and family office-level services to individuals, families, and business owners who expect both excellent advice and a genuine relationship.

We also believe the best relationship in the world is made stronger by the best tools available. Our AI-powered, fully integrated platform gives our advisors more time for the conversations that matter most, and our investment approach is built around where the world is going, not where it has been. At THRYVE, we are committed to building and earning our clients' trust: the kind that shows up in the difficult times, when markets are down or you're faced with a major financial decision. It is those real conversations about financial goals, core values, and legacy that provide our clients comfort when they need it most. That's the THRYVE difference.

General Disclosure 

THRYVE Wealth Management, LLC (“THRYVE”) is a registered investment advisor. The information provided herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax, or accounting advice. THRYVE does not provide legal or tax advice, and nothing communicated by our firm or its representatives should be construed as such.

Clients and prospective clients are strongly encouraged to consult with their own qualified legal counsel, tax advisor, or accountant regarding any legal or tax matters. Any discussion of tax or legal topics is general in nature, based on information believed to be reliable, and is not intended to be relied upon as a substitute for professional legal or tax guidance specific to your individual circumstances.

Media Contact: 
Zoe Curtis 
Brand Development 
THRYVE Wealth Management, LLC 
info@thryvewealthmanagement.com